Posted by Jason on Oct 25, 2009 in
Mobile Market |
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Today T-Mobile became the first carrier in the US to offer customers the following choice: sign a new 2 year contract and get a cheap phone, or bring your own phone to the network and get the same plan for a lower monthly fee, with no commitment.
This is really interesting. Bear with me.
For years, US carriers have locked customers into long-term contracts by offering them a ‘cheap’ new phone. It seems like a great deal, until you realize that the carrier has crippled the phone. Some features don’t work at all. Some require you to pay the carrier an extra fee. And there are lots of restrictions on third-party apps (like Skydeck).
So why don’t more people pay up for the unlocked, uncensored version of their phone? (more…)
Posted by Jason on Jun 2, 2009 in
Mobile Market |
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(An edited version of this first appeared as a guest post on VentureBeat.)
There’s a battle brewing for control of your mobile address book. Don’t be surprised. Tap Tap Revolution or Twitterberry may get the love, but the address book is the most valuable app on your phone.
Phone numbers are not like email addresses. Those are often sensible or have a display name attached, and the message itself may have a signature. Xobni has shown that you can build an address book on the fly in Outlook by mining the headers and content of your email. Phone numbers are almost random. Area codes are losing their meaning thanks to virtual numbers and number portability; no major mobile operator supports Caller Name Display; there is no (official) directory of cell phone numbers; and you can’t sign a phone call. Unless you have a gift for memorizing 10-digit numbers, you have to maintain your own little routing table.
It’s tedious enough to stop some people from switching carrier if they can’t take their address book with them. In the US, most phones do not have swappable SIM cards. Until recently, few allowed third-party apps to access the address book, and almost none support SyncML out of the box. (This is why popular European services like Zyb, Soocial, and Funambol are not well known in the US – they were all originally based on SyncML.) Some carriers offer wireless backup and restore, but only between their own phones. Some even block you from sharing contacts one a time over Bluetooth. To transfer your address book, you have to hack your phone with BitPim or buy a $40 gizmo like Backup-Pal or CellStik.
But there’s much more at stake than “churn.” (more…)
Posted by Jason on Mar 10, 2009 in
Apps We Like,
Mobile Market |
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At Skydeck we’ve been playing around with Google Latitude, the new feature of Google Maps for mobile phones that allows you to share your location with friends.
The Latitude idea has been floating around for years, but … it’s very hard to do well on one model of cell phone; there are actually hundreds of different kinds; there is no obvious revenue model; cell phone and Internet companies cannot agree on how to split the non-obvious revenue; and privacy advocates think the whole idea is insane. Google has cut through all of this by ignoring revenue for now, spending a fortune to build clients for many different kinds of phones as well as systems that can figure out the location of those phones without the help of cell phone companies, and promising to do no evil.
It works really well. If you connect to me, I can see where you are at all times. No more “I’m here – where are you?” phone calls. At a sprawling conference in Barcelona, the Skydeck team were able to keep track of each other and co-ordinate meetings. And my wife knows when I am on my way home. (more…)
Posted by Jason on Mar 6, 2009 in
Mobile Market |
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A few weeks ago, Skydeck went to Mobile World Congress in Barcelona. MWC is the largest trade show devoted to our industry and we were there to meet with several companies interested in working with us to launch Skydeck outside the US.
I wish we could say that we saw lots of cool new phones and applications at MWC, but they were few and far between. As many people have pointed out, some of the most interesting companies in the industry were not exhibiting in Barcelona at all (Apple), or doing invitation-only demos (Palm), or making cameo appearances in the booths of other companies (Google).
Most conspicuously absent? You, the consumer – someone who might actually want to buy a cool new phone or application. (more…)
Posted by Jason on Jul 29, 2008 in
Mobile Market |
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On Friday TechCrunch invited me to speak at their Mobile Web Wars roundtable. You can view the webcast, or read Dan Farber’s summary for CNet.
The most interesting thing that I learned was how many more people are willing to experiment with applications on the iPhone compared to any other phone on the market. Skeptics like to point out that of the 3 billion mobile phones on earth, fewer than 10 million are iPhones; they account for only 2% of the phones in America. But Loopt CEO Sam Altman said that the iPhone already accounts for 25% of his users, even though his app is available on every Verizon, Sprint, and Boost phone. And Pandora CEO Tom Jordan claimed that more people downloaded his app for the iPhone in the first few days that the device was on sale than have tried Pandora on any other AT&T phone – and Pandora is pre-loaded on every other AT&T phone.
Posted by Jason on Jun 14, 2008 in
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Every few years the Valley gets excited about the potential for location-based applications. This time I think the excitement is justified, because of the iPhone. VentureBeat invited me to write a column to explain why.
Posted by Jason on Jun 10, 2008 in
Mobile Market,
Phones |
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I don’t write about the iPhone that often – Skydeck’s goal is to support every phone in the world – but it has had an extraordinary impact on the industry and I have a few predictions.
Lots of people have predictions though, so let me review my past performance before I ask you to take me seriously.
Jan 10, 2007 (the day following the launch):
“Forget about the specs, this is all about the user interface.”
Check.
“Don’t blame Apple for going with Cingular instead of Verizon. Blame Verizon… The iPhone and products like it will ultimately force Verizon open.”
Check.
“Fred Wilson thinks that the iPhone will have no impact on sales of the Blackberry and that the market was wrong to sell off RIM. I disagree.”
Check. The two companies are now competing directly. (more…)
Posted by Jason on May 7, 2008 in
Mobile Market |
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A little company in New Jersey called Synchronoss had a very bad day today, and no one is quite sure why. I think it’s because the next iPhone will be subsidized.
Synchronoss sells software that allows cell phone companies and other communication service providers to activate cell phones and modems and cable boxes online. In particular, Synchronoss worked with Apple and AT&T to enable iPhone customers to activate the device at home via iTunes. This was one of many features that made the iPhone remarkable. Synchronoss deserves a lot of credit for pulling it off, and it was a huge deal for them, since AT&T accounts for more than 70% of their revenue.
Last night Synchronoss reported their Q1 earnings. This morning their stock dropped more than 40%. One line in the press release explains why:
“We have materially lowered our growth expectations for 2008 due in large part to reduced revenues associated with the iPhone.”
Synchronoss announced that they expect to make less money from the iPhone in 2008 than they did in 2007 – $30 million less. (more…)
If you thought that the debate about open access was over, it’s really just begun.
Last week the FCC announced that Verizon and AT&T were the big winners in the 700 MHz auction, as expected. In particular Verizon won the ‘C’ block, the nationwide license to which open access conditions apply.
Now the regulators have to decide what the open access provisions really mean, and how they’re going to be enforced.
For most of us, open access means ‘any application on any device’: you can attach any compatible device to the network and run any application that the device is capable of running. Verizon used similar language last year when the company announced that it was going to open up its existing network to ‘any application, any device.’ (more…)
Posted by Jason on Feb 22, 2008 in
Mobile Market |
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Within 24 hours of each other this week Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile all announced unlimited nationwide calling plans that start at $99.99. T-Mobile’s plan includes text messaging as well.
The analysts and the journalists and Wall Street all cried ‘Price War‘ and Verizon’s stock price dropped 10% before recovering. We think they were all overreacting, to say the least.
There’s a big difference between the advertised price of the voice plan and the total amount of the bill.
The average total bill in the US is about $60 per line ($53 according to the CTIA, plus taxes). All of the coverage so far can be summarized as “$100 is way more than $60, but it must still affect a whole lot of people, right?” Wrong.
$60 includes the voice plan, text messaging, email, web browsing, ringtones, games, premium text messages, 411, international roaming, activation fees, equipment protection, roadside assistance, state and federal surcharges, late fees, just-for-the-hell-of-it fees, and taxes. Voice costs only $40 per line on average including roaming and overage charges.
So how many people spend $100 or more on voice every month? According to Verizon, one half of one per cent of all their subscribers. Do they contribute a disproportionate amount of revenue? No. If every single one of them switched to the new plan, Verizon’s revenue would drop by one third of one per cent.
If rumors of a $60 unlimited plan from Sprint are correct, all bets are off. But $99.99 is a phony war.
UPDATE 2/28: Sprint comes in at $89.99 for unlimited voice and a bundle of data services for another ten bucks. On the quarterly conference call, CEO Dan Hesse admits that the number of subscribers spending $100 or more per line is in the low to mid single digit percentage range. (Or in English, less than 5%.) Nothing to see here, move along.
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