June 14, 2008 | Be the first to comment
Every few years the Valley gets excited about the potential for location-based applications. This time I think the excitement is justified, because of the iPhone. VentureBeat invited me to write a column to explain why.
Posted by: Jason
Categories: Mobile Market
June 10, 2008 | 4 Comments
I don’t write about the iPhone that often - Skydeck’s goal is to support every phone in the world - but it has had an extraordinary impact on the industry and I have a few predictions.
Lots of people have predictions though, so let me review my past performance before I ask you to take me seriously.
Jan 10, 2007 (the day following the launch):
“Forget about the specs, this is all about the user interface.”
Check.
“Don’t blame Apple for going with Cingular instead of Verizon. Blame Verizon… The iPhone and products like it will ultimately force Verizon open.”
Check.
“Fred Wilson thinks that the iPhone will have no impact on sales of the Blackberry and that the market was wrong to sell off RIM. I disagree.”
Check. The two companies are now competing directly. (more…)
Posted by: Jason
Categories: Mobile Market, Phones
May 7, 2008 | 3 Comments
A little company in New Jersey called Synchronoss had a very bad day today, and no one is quite sure why. I think it’s because the next iPhone will be subsidized.
Synchronoss sells software that allows cell phone companies and other communication service providers to activate cell phones and modems and cable boxes online. In particular, Synchronoss worked with Apple and AT&T to enable iPhone customers to activate the device at home via iTunes. This was one of many features that made the iPhone remarkable. Synchronoss deserves a lot of credit for pulling it off, and it was a huge deal for them, since AT&T accounts for more than 70% of their revenue.
Last night Synchronoss reported their Q1 earnings. This morning their stock dropped more than 40%. One line in the press release explains why:
“We have materially lowered our growth expectations for 2008 due in large part to reduced revenues associated with the iPhone.”
Synchronoss announced that they expect to make less money from the iPhone in 2008 than they did in 2007 - $30 million less. (more…)
Posted by: Jason
Categories: Mobile Market, Featured
March 23, 2008 | Be the first to comment
If you thought that the debate about open access was over, it’s really just begun.
Last week the FCC announced that Verizon and AT&T were the big winners in the 700 MHz auction, as expected. In particular Verizon won the ‘C’ block, the nationwide license to which open access conditions apply.
Now the regulators have to decide what the open access provisions really mean, and how they’re going to be enforced.
For most of us, open access means ‘any application on any device’: you can attach any compatible device to the network and run any application that the device is capable of running. Verizon used similar language last year when the company announced that it was going to open up its existing network to ‘any application, any device.’ (more…)
Posted by: Jason
Categories: Mobile Market, Public Policy, Featured
February 22, 2008 | 1 Comment
Within 24 hours of each other this week Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile all announced unlimited nationwide calling plans that start at $99.99. T-Mobile’s plan includes text messaging as well.
The analysts and the journalists and Wall Street all cried ‘Price War‘ and Verizon’s stock price dropped 10% before recovering. We think they were all overreacting, to say the least.
There’s a big difference between the advertised price of the voice plan and the total amount of the bill.
The average total bill in the US is about $60 per line ($53 according to the CTIA, plus taxes). All of the coverage so far can be summarized as “$100 is way more than $60, but it must still affect a whole lot of people, right?” Wrong.
$60 includes the voice plan, text messaging, email, web browsing, ringtones, games, premium text messages, 411, international roaming, activation fees, equipment protection, roadside assistance, state and federal surcharges, late fees, just-for-the-hell-of-it fees, and taxes. Voice costs only $40 per line on average including roaming and overage charges.
So how many people spend $100 or more on voice every month? According to Verizon, one half of one per cent of all their subscribers. Do they contribute a disproportionate amount of revenue? No. If every single one of them switched to the new plan, Verizon’s revenue would drop by one third of one per cent.
If rumors of a $60 unlimited plan from Sprint are correct, all bets are off. But $99.99 is a phony war.
UPDATE 2/28: Sprint comes in at $89.99 for unlimited voice and a bundle of data services for another ten bucks. On the quarterly conference call, CEO Dan Hesse admits that the number of subscribers spending $100 or more per line is in the low to mid single digit percentage range. (Or in English, less than 5%.) Nothing to see here, move along.
Posted by: Jason
Categories: Mobile Market
February 21, 2008 | 3 Comments
zzzPhone is a brave attempt to take the build-to-order model pioneered by Dell for PCs and apply it to the cell phone market. Several blogs have covered them and the New York Times picked up the story today.
This is the kind of innovation that open access makes possible. The market for the zzzPhone today is probably no more than a few tens of thousands of units worldwide, so it wouldn’t make sense for a major carrier to do a deal with them. But zzzPhone doesn’t need permission from a cell phone company to launch; their phones will work on any GSM network, including AT&T and T-Mobile in the US.
But even with open access, there are big challenges ahead for zzzPhone. PCs are not like cell phones and the Dell model may not succeed.
Posted by: Jason
Categories: Mobile Market, Public Policy, Phones, Featured
February 20, 2008 | 13 Comments
Since we posted about mystery charges from SJA Mobile a few things have happened that confirm our suspicions and also suggest that SJA has taken notice.
We are not the only ones. Comments on our blog and posts on HowardForums reveal that lots of people have been on the wrong end of charges from SJA Mobile, most of them Sprint customers.
(more…)
Posted by: Dan
Categories: Mobile Market, Featured, Advice
February 5, 2008 | 52 Comments
My Sprint bill contained an odd new charge this month: SJA Mobile: Alerts - SJA Mobile Alerts - 01/03 $4.99
I had never heard of SJA Mobile, so I dug around on their website. It seems that all they do is offer refunds. But for what service?
It looks like SJA Mobile acquires lists of cell phone numbers, sends blank or meaningless text messages to each number, and then adds $4.99 or $9.99 to the customer’s bill each month until the victim customer figures it out and cancels.
Posted by: Dan
Categories: Mobile Market, Featured
January 28, 2008 | 8 Comments
It’s time for the Carnival, and we’ve got plenty of freshly popped mobile insights for you.
This has been yet another big week for mobile, with the 700 mhz auction kicking off last Thursday and a number of the big carriers (Verizon, ATT) announcing strong growth in their wireless businesses.
So without delay, lets get to the stories, starting with my pick for this week’s best post.
The 700 mhz auction began last Thursday, and has the potential to change the game of wireless as we know it. In our best post this week, John Puterbaugh from Nellymoser lays down a concise yet thorough review of the 700 mhz auction that defines (more…)
Posted by: Dan
Categories: Mobile Market, Featured
January 24, 2008 | Be the first to comment
AT&T’s new SIM-only option is a positive step towards open access, and opens a new chapter in the US cell phone service market. However, it also highlights just how far behind the US is compared to the rest of the world.
A few days ago AT&T began offering customers the option to purchase cell phone service online without buying a phone, but the deal made no sense. The service-only SIM cost $5 ($10 minus $5 online rebate), but required you to commit to a standard 2-year contract. Elsewhere on the site you can get a free phone in return for signing a 2-year contract. There’s nothing to stop you from selling the phone on eBay and keeping the SIM. Why pay $5 to NOT get a free phone?
(more…)
Posted by: Dan
Categories: Mobile Market, Featured
