If you look at their stock history, it ran up a huge amount before the iPhone, then took another jump with the iPhone halo. The problem was – and I’m just guessing here – that lots of that second run-up was mostly pure halo.

Their CEO has tried to blame the drop on unlocked iPhones, but I think the problem is that they were fundamentally overvalued.

Your point about in-store iPhone activation is interesting. Still, my guess is that Apple wouldn’t break the in-iTunes activation process – which is working so well. Instead (and this is a guess), they’ll likely do an adjunct – perhaps a rebate or credit upon activation?

It’ll also be interesting to see whether Rev 2 hardware is able to put up any real roadblocks to the unlockers.