The Second Coming of the iPhone
I don’t write about the iPhone that often – Skydeck’s goal is to support every phone in the world – but it has had an extraordinary impact on the industry and I have a few predictions.
Lots of people have predictions though, so let me review my past performance before I ask you to take me seriously.
Jan 10, 2007 (the day following the launch):
“Forget about the specs, this is all about the user interface.”
Check.
“Don’t blame Apple for going with Cingular instead of Verizon. Blame Verizon… The iPhone and products like it will ultimately force Verizon open.”
Check.
“Fred Wilson thinks that the iPhone will have no impact on sales of the Blackberry and that the market was wrong to sell off RIM. I disagree.”
Check. The two companies are now competing directly.
“Even if Apple makes it very difficult to unlock the iPhone, they will have to sell unlocked versions in Europe and Asia if they want to make their sales targets. I predict that more unlocked iPhones will be imported back into the US than any handset ever sold.”
I was right about the volume, wrong about the direction – because Apple refused to sell unlocked phones in Europe and Asia, and suffered for it.
“This phone will set the design direction for the whole market and it and phones like it will cost $200 or less in a few years’ time.”
Check and check.
And finally “Why would you even think about blocking third-party applications?”
Exactly.
February 2007
Speaking on a panel titled “The iPhone and Beyond”, I predicted that Apple would not open up the iPhone completely to third-party developers so long as it was getting a share of AT&T’s monthly revenue.
Check. While developers demonstrated their apps on stage yesterday, Apple’s lawyers were making a filing with the SEC to disclose that Apple will no longer receive a revenue share from AT&T.
“An arms race has begun, with Apple and AT&T pitted against an army of developers and cell phone dealers. But we think Apple and AT&T will lose… there is no such thing as an unbreakable software lock.”
Check.
“AT&T will offer the next iPhone at a discount with a two-year contract. Apple will continue to sell the phone at full price in its own stores, but unlocked … If AT&T decides to subsidize the iPhone, they will have to activate it in-store.”
Check, except for the part about selling the phone at full price. But there must be a ‘contract-free’ price for the new iPhone, if only for the customers who break or lose their first one, so I’m standing by this one.
And now my predictions for the iPhone 3G:
1. Apple will blow through its original target of selling 10 million phones in 2008. In particular, the iPhone 3G will be a best seller in every major European market, despite the fact that sales of the first version were disappointing and the upgrade seems incremental. It’s all about the price.
2. Within 12 months, there will be more native applications for the iPhone than there are for Symbian phones. (Native means I don’t count Java apps that happen to run on Symbian as well.)
3. Within 12 months, developers will be free to distribute applications from their own sites instead of going through iTunes, although they may still require a digital signature from Apple.
4. Within two years, revenue from the sale of consumer applications for the iPhone will exceed that for all other smartphone platforms combined.
5. The first truly successful non-obvious location-based application will be written for the iPhone. (Non-obvious means I don’t count maps, turn-by-turn directions, local search, or friend-finding.)
6. One day MobileMe will be more important to Apple than iTunes, but the first year will not be successful.
UPDATE: I expand on no. 5 in a guest column for VentureBeat.